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The SA Reserve Bank’s worst-case scenario, which would see the country’s economy lose 1.1 percentage points in growth and lead to the loss of 125 000 job opportunities, is fast becoming a reality.

The central bank’s latest forecasts predict that the economy will sacrifice 0.4 percentage points in GDP growth if Eskom’s availability factor declines to 65% for a few months.

If the power station fleet staggers to 60% availability, the expectation is that 1.1 percentage points will be lost.

Up until last week, Eskom had only been able to deliver 63% of its installed capacity.

The past week saw a historic low for Eskom, with the ailing state-owned enterprise being forced to implement stage 6 load shedding (rolling blackouts).
The current wave of rolling blackouts is the fourth time that extensive blackouts have occurred in South Africa since 2007.

It is not yet known what the availability figure over this period was, but it
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The publication of the most recent Quarterly Labour Force Survey by Statistics SA and its calculations that the number of unemployed people continues to increase have once again elicited strong opinions and calls that somebody must do something.

Reading the labour force and unemployment statistics together with the report on population growth that Stats SA published a few days earlier – and the statement of the SA Reserve Bank on interest rates a week earlier – creates an even gloomier picture.

Read: The South African disaster: No businesses for the unemployed
The labour force survey for the second quarter of 2019 shows that the economy added a paltry 25 000 jobs compared to a year ago, but that the labour force increased by 598 000 work seekers.

This means only a single job was available for every 24 people who entered the labour market during the last year.

The figures are even worse when taking a closer look at the different
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